Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito*, Akihiro Tokai and Toyohiko Nakakubo
Abstract: In this study, we aim to develop a system dynamics model to provide analysis on the impact of the moratorium policy on the new forest and peatland concessions under the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation cooperation in Indonesia’s economy and environment. A scenario-based approach was conducted using system dynamics modeling to extrapolate two basic scenarios of with and without the moratorium policy. The results demonstrated that the policy noticeably reduces carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation. However, the reduction is only temporary, and the emission trend under the moratorium policy scenarios would eventually return to the business as usual level. By contrast, Indonesia would face a trade-off between emission reductions and economic growth. Because of the policy implementation, Indonesia should be prepared to weather the economic slowdown. Furthermore, the slowdown effect would last sufficiently long when compared to the policy period.
Keywords: System dynamics, Indonesia moratorium policy, REDD-plus, CO2 emissions, Palm oil.
Atsamon Limsakul*, Usa Humphries, Angkool Wangwongchai, Thanet Chitsuphaphan and Prungchan Wongwises
Abstract: On the basis of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and harmonic analysis, spatial patterns of diurnal cycles of precipitation during a rainy season over Thailand and its vicinity were examined using 3-hourly, 0.25° TRMM data for the time period 2000-2009. Results revealed that the leading two EOFs and harmonics could explain most of diurnal precipitation variations. The first EOF and harmonic represent the diurnal cycle with an afternoon-evening peak and amplitude of 30-88% of the climatological mean. This dominant feature reflects land-sea difference in the atmospheric response to solar radiation forcing, representing potential instability forced by the surface heat flux, insolation and long-wave radiative cooling during the day and night. Whereas, the second EOF and harmonic denote the semidiurnal cycle, with nocturnal and early morning maxima and amplitude of 10-33% of the climatological mean. The secondary sub-daily cycle represents a complementary local variation, and is associated with mesoscale dynamics of convective systems and its interactions with local thermally induced circulations. The findings from this study provide evidence to broaden the understanding of local climate, and to validate certain parameterizations in numerical models as well as to improve weather forecast accuracy. However, further analysis should relate and simulate the identified diurnal variations to large-scale atmospheric circulation modes . This future work may lead to better understand the mechanisms of diurnal precipitation variations under a recent widening of the tropical belt and an anthropogenically warmed climate.
Keywords: Diurnal variation, Precipitation, Empirical Orthogonal Function, Harmonic, Thailand.
Jirapa Kamsamrong* and Chumnong Sorapipatana
Abstract: Thailand’s power generation over a decade has relied on natural gas as a major energy source accounting for more than 70% of total energy supply for generating electricity. Thailand has limited natural gas resources, so Thailand has been importing natural gas from Myanmar since 1998. The latest Thailand power development plan (PDP 2010 Rev. 3) has a goal to improve energy security by reducing the reliance on natural gas by installing new coal-fired power and nuclear power plants, which can reduce the CO2 emission. The big problem is the strong objection of the public from nuclear power plants because of the fear of uncontrolled accidents from disaster, human errors, and radiation from uranium waste.
This study assesses CO2 abatement cost according to the PDP 2010 plan. Also, it proposes alternative scenarios in case nuclear power plants (Alt.1) or neither new coal nor nuclear power plants (Alt. 2) cannot be constructed. It was found that there is another option to increase energy supply security and reduce the CO2 emission without installing new nuclear and coal power plants. This can be achieved by increasing the renewable energy installed capacity and also improving the base load power plant. It was found that the CO2 abatement cost from renewable energy scenario (Alt.2) is 52.4% less than PDP scenario, but the average of electricity generation is only 1.7% higher than the PDP plan.
It is important for the Thai government to take time and give real, honest information about nuclear power plants along with promoting the use of renewable energy. In the other hand, if Thailand invests for renewable energy, it would have a positive effect on Thailand’s ability to improve renewable technology because widespread used could reduce the future cost of investment. This needs effective renewable energy policy and regulations as well as attractive incentives for renewable energy developers.
Keywords: PDP 2010, CO2, abatement cost, nuclear, coal.
Delfi F. Soraya, Shabbir H. Gheewala*, Sébastien Bonnet and Chakrit Tongurai
Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the environmental impacts of biodiesel production from palm oil in Indonesia using life cycle assessment methodology. The functional unit of this study is 1 ton biodiesel. The main contributor to the global warming potential is the use of fertilizers and herbicides in the plantation stage contributing 58%. Co-products from palm oil process can be used for energy in the mill. Electricity also gives high environmental impact since it is purchased from the electricity grid mix which relies mostly on coal fired power plants. The biodiesel production stage was the main contributor for photochemical oxidation impact. Transportation also has a significant contribution to the environmental impacts.
Keywords: Biodiesel, palm oil, environmental impact, life cycle, Indonesia.