System Dynamics Model Development for Evaluation of theMoratorium Policy on New Forest and Peatland Concessions under Bilateral Cooperation in Indonesia: Palm Oil Industry Sector Case Study

Ibnu Susanto Joyosemito*, Akihiro Tokai and Toyohiko Nakakubo

<p style="text-align:justify;"><strong>Abstract:</strong> In this study, we aim to develop a system dynamics model to provide analysis on the impact of the moratorium policy on the new forest and peatland concessions under the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation cooperation in Indonesia&rsquo;s economy and environment. A scenario-based approach was conducted using system dynamics modeling to extrapolate two basic scenarios of with and without the moratorium policy. The results demonstrated that the policy noticeably reduces carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation. However, the reduction is only temporary, and the emission trend under the moratorium policy scenarios would eventually return to the business as usual level. By contrast, Indonesia would face a trade-off between emission reductions and economic growth. Because of the policy implementation, Indonesia should be prepared to weather the economic slowdown. Furthermore, the slowdown effect would last sufficiently long when compared to the policy period.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> System dynamics, Indonesia moratorium policy, REDD-plus, CO2 emissions, Palm oil.</p>

Diurnal Variations in Summer Monsoon Precipitation over Thailand and Its Vicinity Observed from Ten Years of TRMM Data

Atsamon Limsakul*, Usa Humphries, Angkool Wangwongchai, Thanet Chitsuphaphan and Prungchan Wongwises

<div style="text-align:justify;"><p><strong>Abstract: </strong>On the basis of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and harmonic analysis, spatial patterns of diurnal cycles of precipitation during a rainy season over Thailand and its vicinity were examined using 3-hourly, 0.25&deg; TRMM data for the time period 2000-2009. Results revealed that the leading two EOFs and harmonics could explain most of diurnal precipitation variations. The first EOF and harmonic represent the diurnal cycle with an afternoon-evening peak and amplitude of 30-88% of the climatological mean. This dominant feature reflects land-sea difference in the atmospheric response to solar radiation forcing, representing potential instability forced by the surface heat flux, insolation and long-wave radiative cooling during the day and night. Whereas, the second EOF and harmonic denote the semidiurnal cycle, with nocturnal and early morning maxima and amplitude of 10-33% of the climatological mean. The secondary sub-daily cycle represents a complementary local variation, and is associated with mesoscale dynamics of convective systems and its interactions with local thermally induced circulations. The findings from this study provide evidence to broaden the understanding of local climate, and to validate certain parameterizations in numerical models as well as to improve weather forecast accuracy. However, further analysis should relate and simulate the identified diurnal variations to large-scale atmospheric circulation modes . This future work may lead to better understand the mechanisms of diurnal precipitation variations under a recent widening of the tropical belt and an anthropogenically warmed climate.<br /></p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Diurnal variation, Precipitation, Empirical Orthogonal Function, Harmonic, Thailand.</p></div>